J.L. Davis Weekly Market Update 12/6/2010

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

"There are always flowers for those who want to see them." – Henri Matisse

THE MARKETS:

Does it ever seem to you that news headlines possess a split personality? That everything is always rosy or doom and gloom with no middle ground? This perception scares many people out of investing leading them to conclude that such unpredictability is a risk they can do without. Is this a recent phenomenon?

While it may be obvious that sensational headlines are designed to get an audience’s attention, media influence over public opinion is a long-held tradition. Consider a few headlines from years past: (1)

Can Capitalism Survive? – 1975
Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel? – 1992
Awash in Troubles – 1984

Do any of these headlines sound familiar, even recent? If the years weren’t printed next to them, would you conclude that two of them are over 25 years old? Often, such dire predictions leave something out. In many cases, even as the news is inundated with pessimistic headlines, positive long-term trends are in development.

Just this Sunday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared on CBS’ 60 Minutes. Included among his comments were positive statements such as, “I have every confidence that this economy will recover, and recover in a strong and sustained way. The American people are among the most productive in the world. We have the best technologies. We have great universities. We have entrepreneurs. I just have every confidence that as we get through this crisis, that our economy will begin to grow again, and it will remain the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world." (2)

To our point, just an hour after the Fed Chairman’s interview, CNN lead with this headline: Bernanke on '60 Minutes': Grim Outlook. (3) Granted, not everything Bernanke said was positive, but why did CNN choose to highlight the negative? Because sensational headlines sell. Remembering this fact can help you avoid making rash, emotional decisions, and may even help you sleep better at night.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR: (4)

Tuesday – Consumer Credit
Wednesday – EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday – Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Report
Friday – International Trade, Consumer Sentiment, Treasury Budget

HEADLINES:

The U.S. Senate on Saturday defeated two attempts by Democrats to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the middle class permanently. After the Senate voted, President Barack Obama told Democratic congressional leaders he would be open to a temporary extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for the affluent, but he would demand concessions from the GOP. (5)

The United States has reached a tentative free trade agreement with South Korea, the White House said Friday. The agreement, which must be ratified by Congress, strengthens economic ties between Washington and Seoul at a time when the longtime U.S. ally faces an increasingly hostile northern neighbor. If ratified, the agreement would eliminate tariffs on over 95% of industrial and consumer goods within five years. (6)

A surprising increase in the number of unemployed Americans wasn't enough to stall oil's momentum Friday as it cruised to a 26-month high. Benchmark oil settled up $1.19 at $89.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It's the second time in less than a month that oil has reached the level where it was in the fall of 2008. There are widespread expectations that the price will hit $90 a barrel by year's end and head toward $100 a barrel by next spring when traders begin looking ahead to the summer driving season. (7)

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 39,000 in November, far lower than the 155,000 gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch and the upwardly revised figure of 172,000 jobs gained in October. (8)


Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, not necessarily those of J.L. Davis or Multi Financial Securities Corporation, and should not be construed as investment advice (neither of whom gives tax or legal advice). All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

1) http://www.time.com/time/archive/
2) http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/03/60minutes/main7114229.shtml
3) http://money.cnn.com/
4) http://www.econoday.com/
5) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704767804575654713979746760.html
6) http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/03/news/international/south_korea_free_trade/index.htm
7) http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9JSM3C83.htm
8) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/unemployment-hits-98-as-payrolls-add-just-39000-2010-12-03